when the number of tickets sold is less than 13,983,816, your reasoning holds true but when they sell 30 million plus tickets
http://diffusion.loto-quebec.com/sw3/res/asp/index.asp?l=0&pRequest=2&cProduit=4 your chances decrease (because the distribution of all possible combinations is very even with *way* more duplicates)
but mathematics always hits a paradox wall with gambling: it's allways a crap shoot with no reason or rhyme
