<<"...make no mistake about it, the froth in the U.S. housing market is about to lose its effervescence; the bubble is about to become less bubbly. If real housing prices decline in the U.S. in 2006 or 2007, a recession is nearly inevitable." Bill Gross, PIMCO, October 2005>>


I'm not very surprised about this. Since in a recession,economy, the luxury goods are the first thing people will stop to buy. Since pinball is a Lux, what about value of pinballs    in 2007?

Did someone remember how much used to cost a pinball machine in the mid 90's ? How the price varied trought the years ? For sure we face peak in value.

US are going recession and  canada will be affected. Will you buy 4k machines in 2007 ?

the state of the economy these days depends on who you ask. speculators will be speculators.

notice how people have been "predicting" a housing crash in montreal for the last 3 years. it hasnt happened. i'm not saying it's *not* going to happen just saying that nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow. speculators however can never keep quiet as they have money invested in their hunches.

since i got back into checking out pins a couple months ago, i have noticed a decrease in prices of higher end pinball machines. sub $2000 game prices have gone up.

Quoted from Mani

since i got back into checking out pins a couple months ago, i have noticed a decrease in prices of higher end pinball machines. sub $2000 game prices have gone up.

I think I would add that some machines are more 'wanted' now than a 1-2 years ago...these ones have gone up...and the same thing can be said in the reverse...

I think that prices have gone down...a bit...in the last year or so...

What I mean is that in 2004-05, you couldn't get a WPC for under $1500CAD (well...maybe Popeye), now, many of them are available under that 'benchmark'.
Yes, I know, the exchange rate is somewhat helping us right now...

On the other hand, TZ is still climbing...

I know doomsday sayers have been predicting a recession for some time,
but I do indeed think it is closer than we think.

The US are $2 TRILLION dollars in debt.
Their currency has lost ALOT of value (just look at our 90c Loonie...),
and US consumers have amassed the largest debtload in history,
(much of that on variable rate interest). so when the US will have to
raise rates to to support their ballooning debt, the ecomony
will quickly fall into a tailspin, and thus an ugly recession.
(... I think very few people, least of which the Amercian people,
have any clue as to how truly bad their situation is ...)

But enough about World Economics ...
What does this "really" mean for pinball... ?

Well, for us North of the Border,  probably some good news...

Unlike the US, our economy is actually in pretty good shape
(...Billion dollar surpluses, low jobless rate, etc.. ),
so although the US Economy will take ours down a bit too (..especially
on Exports..),   overall, we should still be OK.

Better still, our currency will likely get stronger
(...some economists even went as far as saying we'd be at par with the US
in late 2007 ! ), so buying for the US will be even "cheaper".

And as pointed out, luxury items will be out of favor,
so there will be fewer US buyers and more stock from people
trying to liquidate their pin inventory.

All this "potentially" spells good news for Canadian pin collectors.

No-one can deny that pins have become more affordable in the last two years,
and I would expect things to continue.  

I guess we'll have to wait and see...

Some machines went up because the sky was falling, but since Stern has proven themselves able to continue to produce desireable titles this is no longer a concern. Ops in the past would leave machines out there for much less time since Williams would be coming out with titles almost too frequently. The influx of used machines did dry up after the closure since the Ops ran them longer.

I have noticed an increase in the duration high end ads remaining on Mr. Pinball. It would appear that the exchange of high end games has slowed, which is an indicator of the number of people willing to pay those prices. If you look at stock and volume of trades as the price rises. High volume on rising price is a strong indication of further increasing prices. When the volume drops off then it has reached a price point of resistance. There generally will then be a correction and the price will find a new beta. I believe A list WPC Williams/Bally games to be in the early stage of that correction.

The below $2000 games that are popular have high demand and do not remain for sale for long. Which indicates people are willing to pay the going rate for them without hesitation. I do not see a decline in these games.

New price guide that works to factor in the various sales throughout the market comes out next month. Lets see how the compiled data looks then before jumping to conclusions.

Necro, do you have any gantt charts or histograms to back up these claims.  Preferably bundled in a nice powerpoint presentation?  Im am not sure I am convinced.

Statistic are complicated to make but I think I get the point of necro. If I remember, 4 years a go you could get a DM for 1400$. Now it's much more 1800$. But luxury machine 4-5K have came down. This could be explained in different way. Populakrity a of a title makes it go higher but if you loose your job will you sell your DM or SV ?

cbrman: If you think a DM is $1800, you're not shopping at the right places...  

I think a big factor for pinball prices (in the Williams sys11/WPC world) will be the availability of parts...I think that if the parts market would be the same as err...let's say 1.5 years ago (before the aussie nazi), prices would be lower right now.

My $0.02

frosken

Frosken, I was just giving an "theorical example" of a Pins that used to sell cheaper then now.

Below 2k game raise price and 3k+ game lowered price. It's the offer/demdand principe that apply, more poeple wants those cheaper machine so the price is going up....no many people can offert those higher price machine, then price goes down.

My two cents is that it is always supply and demand. I do not see the Williams/Bally games pricing changing that much as there are no new games out there. The ones that are coming off route are now old and well used so "collector quality" pins will become harder and harder to find. Games that are worn out will always be around. Collectors will always pay top dollar, but how many new collectors will there be?? The new generation are video people, I think most of us are in that 35 years and up group that grew up on pinball, hence call it nostalgia or mid-life crisis or just that we can now afford it, we now have our own collections. Will there be a continuing adding of new collectors?  Time will tell and that will determine pricing more than anything else, at least that is what I think now.

Quoted from HP5P

I think most of us are in that 35 years and up group that grew up on pinball, hence call it nostalgia or mid-life crisis or just that we can now afford it, we now have our own collections. Will there be a continuing adding of new collectors?  Time will tell and that will determine pricing more than anything else, at least that is what I think now.

Prices will lower a bit but hopefully stabilize. the big difference between now and the year 2K is that we know people sell off their toys.. (at least for me, chasing down machines on the fear there'd be none left on the market).. Now with people liquidating their collections, we know that maybe it takes a 2 or 3 years but titles we desire find their way back out on the market.

The possible dark age for pinball is lack of parts. What happens when there are no parts to make games complete or minty fresh?  All the individuals or companies that tried to make parts during the boom (more or less went out of business or don't bother anymore.  so will people be turned off from collecting if the machines are sub optimal?

My take on it is there will be an adjustment: some games will go up, some down. Personally, I am surprised pinball is still so affordable. I really cann't think of any other hobby where the most sought after piece is less than $10K yet a MM is much less. Think comics, stamps, etc. and desirable pieces are big bucks.

Yes, I think some games will come down, but others will continue to increase. I really doubt MM will come down. GetAway, Fish Tales, Shadow, JD, etc. Sure, they will come down a bit, but even then condition will decide. I have yet to see a mint GetAway (playfield always a little wear, cab always one side or both faded) and I bet a MINT one would get serious money.

In the end, I don't think the sky is falling and even if it does. Prices will go back up once the economy picks up...

BTW, those that think the States economy won't effect us are DREAMING. Take a look at the recent lay off notice at Cognos. Know why they did that? The strong Canadian dollar! It means they are getting less CDN $$$ as they price their goods in USD. Manufacturing is also being impacted -- goods produced in Canada are suddenly more expensive (as our dollar is stronger) meaning we are less competative than when the CDN dollar was weak.

Very interesting times. You have to scratch your head at Bush. Every indicator is showing that the war isn't working and he continues on. Don't want to turn this discussion into a political one, so I'll leave it at that.

Duane